Stocks of Indian solar equipment makers plunged on Wednesday, after the United States imposed preliminary duties on imports from India, Indonesia and Laos, the latest in a decade-long series of levies on cheap Asian imports.
Shares of major Indian solar panel and cell makers Waaree Energies and Premier Energies sank about 15%, while Vikram Solar fell nearly 8% in early trade, before paring some losses.
Exports make up 16% of Vikram Solar's upcoming orders, while Waaree's U.S. shipments account for 65% of its order book, Jefferies analysts said. Premier Energies' order book is entirely domestic, its managing director said last week.
Overseas sales yield higher margins than domestic
The duties of 80% to 143.3% on Indian exports could hurt profitability, as overseas sales bring higher margins than domestic ones, Jefferies analysts said on Wednesday.
However, analysts expect the duties to have limited impact on manufacturers in the three countries, though they are heavier than expected.
"The manufacturers have been anticipating U.S. tariffs on cells and modules from the Southeast Asia and India, even before the investigation was first launched in August 2025," said Fei Chen, solar research analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy.
Waaree Energies said it expected no material impact from the duties, citing 2.6 GW of U.S. manufacturing capacity expected to rise to 4.2 GW by the end of this financial year, and a diversified supply chain that includes a planned Oman facility.
Vikram Solar said the duties would have a limited impact as it sourced cells for U.S. customers outside India, in countries with lower tariff exposure.
Premier Energies said it cut its share of exports "to almost nil".
"Indian manufacturers have had a long time to refine sales strategy and business models," it said in a statement, adding that U.S. exports now make up only 5% to 7% of total Indian production.
Trump freeze sends clean power capacity into limbo
U.S. panel manufacturing has ramped up in recent years, even as President Donald Trump's freeze on project approvals has thrown thousands of megawatts of clean power capacity into limbo.
Higher domestic module manufacturing led to a drop of 56% in the value of U.S. solar panel imports in 2025, with India's exports falling by nearly half, U.S. customs data shows.
U.S. solar deployment forecasts for this decade are flat with earlier forecasts, due to an expected rise in utility-scale solar installations despite short-term policy uncertainty, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in December.
However, higher exports from Indonesia and Laos drove up cell imports 35%, mainly because domestic cell-making capacity fell short of demand.
Both countries have been boosting solar exports to make up for a decline in exports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam following a anti-dumping duties, but such shipments are expected to fall in coming months.
"Many have planned, or started, production relocation to regions without significant U.S. tariffs," Fei Chen said, adding that factories in these countries would increasingly cater to growing regional demand.
